Vietnam's Coffee Exports Surge as Brazil's Weather Looms
Vietnam's coffee exports surged in January-September 2025, while global prices experienced volatility due to weather forecasts affecting Brazil's coffee production.
Vietnam, the world's largest coffee exporter, saw a 10.9% year-on-year increase in coffee exports from January to September 2025, reaching 1.230 MMT. This positive trend is expected to continue, with Vietnam's 2025/26 production projected to climb 6% y/y to 1.76 MMT, a four-year high.
Coffee prices, however, have been fluctuating. After rallying to two-week highs last Friday due to dry weather concerns in Brazil, prices retreated for a second day on Tuesday. December arabica coffee (KCZ25) closed down -5.95 (-1.56%), and November ICE robusta coffee (RMX25) fell -57 (-1.27%).
The price volatility can be attributed to varying weather forecasts. While the Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET) predicts over 30 mm of rain in Brazilian coffee planting regions during the week of October 4, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) increased the likelihood of a La Niña weather system in the southern hemisphere from October to December to 71%. This could bring excessive dry weather to Brazil, potentially harming the 2026/27 coffee crop.
Meanwhile, global coffee exports for the current marketing year (October-August) have risen by 0.2% y/y to 127.92 million bags. However, ICE arabica inventories fell to a 1.5-year low of 534,665 bags, and ICE robusta coffee inventories reached a 2.5-month low of 6,293 lots on Tuesday.
In Brazil, Conab cut its 2025 arabica coffee crop estimate by 4.9% to 35.2 million bags and reduced its total Brazil 2025 coffee production estimate by 0.9% to 55.2 million bags.
Vietnam's robust coffee exports and production growth are positive signs for the global coffee market. However, price volatility and weather-related uncertainties in Brazil highlight the challenges ahead. The coffee industry will closely monitor weather developments in Brazil to assess their impact on the 2026/27 crop.
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