Stock Market Indications Suggest Prolonged Gain on Wall Street
U.S. index futures are pointing to a higher open on Thursday, as investors continue to digest the latest economic news and corporate earnings. Among the key developments, U.S. tariffs on semiconductors and chips, announced in August 2025, have had a mixed impact on companies like Apple and Intel.
Impact on Apple and Intel
Apple, which pledged a $100 billion investment in U.S. manufacturing, has largely avoided these tariffs. Following the tariff announcement and Apple's investment pledge, Apple's stock rose significantly—about 3.3% in premarket trading and a further 3% in extended trading after the announcement. This relief rally reflects investor confidence that Apple will sidestep the new tariffs and the associated cost pressures on iPhones and other products.
Intel, a major U.S. chipmaker, also benefited from the tariff exemptions conditioned on local manufacturing commitments. Intel's stock price, which had been struggling, climbed after the tariff announcement as investors reacted positively to its exemption and commitments to U.S. production. The company is part of a broader semiconductor industry investment totaling $630 billion across 28 states, aimed at revitalizing U.S. chip manufacturing and maintaining competitive global standing.
Other chipmakers like AMD and Nvidia similarly saw their stocks advance after the announcement of the exemption policy for companies manufacturing in the U.S.
Broader Economic Effects of Tariffs
The U.S. tariffs on semiconductors and other goods have raised overall price levels by about 1.8% in the short run and are estimated to lower real GDP growth by around 0.5 percentage points per year in 2025 and 2026, shrinking the U.S. economy by about 0.4% in the long term, equivalent to a $125 billion annual loss.
Employment effects include an increase in the unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points by the end of 2025 and loss of over 500,000 payroll jobs. While manufacturing output may expand (by 2.1% in the long run), losses in other sectors such as construction and agriculture offset these gains.
Summary
The 100% tariff on chips announced in 2025 has been softened by exemptions for companies manufacturing in the U.S. Apple and Intel have been positively impacted, with stock price gains following the tariff announcement and related commitments to U.S. investment. The tariffs have broader negative effects on U.S. economic growth and employment despite some gains in manufacturing output. The Semiconductor Industry Association welcomes the exemption approach but calls for careful design of trade policies to maintain U.S. competitiveness.
This combination of tariff pressure with targeted exemptions explains the recent positive market reactions for Apple, Intel, and other chipmakers, while highlighting ongoing risks to the broader economy from tariff-induced costs and trade disruptions. Apple plans to invest another $100 billion in the U.S. Consumer goods and adhesives maker Henkel climbed 2.2 percent after lifting its FY25 margin forecast.
[1] Source: Peterson Institute for International Economics
[2] Source: MarketWatch
[3] Source: CNBC
[4] Source: The Wall Street Journal
[5] Source: Semiconductor Industry Association
- The tariffs on semiconductors have resulted in a relief rally for companies like Apple and Intel, as their stocks rose significantly following the tariff announcement due to investor confidence in avoiding cost pressures and making substantial investments in U.S. manufacturing.
- Despite the positive market reactions for Apple, Intel, and other chipmakers, the overall U.S. economy may experience negative effects from the tariff-induced costs and trade disruptions, with an estimated reduction in real GDP growth by 0.5 percentage points per year in 2025 and 2026, equivalent to a $125 billion annual loss over the long term.
