Predictive AI model identifies personal mortality risk
In a groundbreaking development, researchers have created an AI tool named DunedinPACNI that can predict an individual's aging speed and the risk of age-related diseases using brain scans. The tool, developed using data from over 1,000 participants of the Dunedin Study, a long-term health study that began in 1972 and 1973, has been validated using samples from Latin America and participants from the UK with low income or not white.
The tool, which uses a single brain MRI scan to estimate the pace of aging, is particularly accurate in predicting the risk of dementia. Individuals with the fastest DunedinPACNI aging scores are found to be 60% more likely to develop Alzheimer's disease or related dementias over subsequent years. Faster aging scores are also associated with earlier cognitive decline and accelerated hippocampal atrophy, a brain region essential to memory.
In addition to predicting dementia risk, DunedinPACNI also predicts frailty, poor overall health, higher risk of chronic diseases (18% higher likelihood), and mortality (40% higher risk), even in individuals who are currently healthy. The tool’s predictive power holds across diverse demographic groups, indicating broad applicability.
The findings of the study, published in the journal "Nature Aging", further suggest a link between rapid brain aging and rapid bodily aging. People who aged faster according to the data were more likely to have age-related issues like heart attacks, lung diseases, or strokes. People who age faster according to the tool's measure perform worse in cognitive tests.
The tool determines the aging speed based on 315 measurable features from a brain scan, including volume and thickness of certain brain sections. Neuroscientist Ahmad Hariri stated that the tool seems to capture something that is reflected in all brains.
The implications of this breakthrough are significant. DunedinPACNI enables clinicians and researchers to identify people who are aging faster and are at higher risk of cognitive decline and chronic diseases before symptoms manifest, allowing timely intervention. By quantifying an individual's aging speed, healthcare providers can tailor prevention strategies and monitor responses to treatments aimed at slowing aging or mitigating disease progression.
The tool can also be applied broadly to existing MRI scans globally, facilitating large-scale studies on brain aging and age-related diseases. As populations age worldwide, tools like DunedinPACNI can help forecast disease burden and inform resource allocation to better manage chronic conditions associated with aging.
The authors of the study have already filed a patent for "DunedinPACNI". This represents a major breakthrough in aging research by providing a highly accurate, noninvasive, and scalable method to predict how quickly individuals are aging and their risk for diseases like dementia. This has significant potential to transform early diagnosis, personalized care, and promote healthier aging trajectories.
- The AI tool, DunedinPACNI, which uses a single brain MRI scan to estimate the pace of aging, can predict not only the risk of dementia but also the risk of developing chronic diseases.
- The tool's predictive power indicates a 18% higher likelihood of chronic diseases, including cardiovascular health issues and respiratory conditions.
- Faster aging scores, as determined by DunedinPACNI, are also associated with a 40% higher risk of mortality.
- In addition to cognitive decline, faster aging scores are linked to poor health-and-wellness, frailty, and accelerated hippocampal atrophy, a brain region critical for memory retrieval.
- The tool has shown accuracy in predicting neurological disorders like Alzheimer's disease and related dementias, with individuals scoring faster on the DunedinPACNI aging scale being 60% more likely to develop these conditions.
- The study, published in the journal "Nature Aging", further suggests a connection between rapid brain aging and age-related medical-conditions such as heart attacks, lung diseases, or strokes.
- The implications of this study extend to the realm of health-and-wellness and fitness-and-exercise, with the potential to offer timely intervention for those at risk of cognitive decline and chronic diseases.
- This breakthrough in technology, represented by the patent for DunedinPACNI, is a significant step in aging research, potentially transforming early diagnosis, personalized care, and promoting healthier aging trajectories, including skin-care and weight-management.
