"Nuclear Arsenal Expansion": Scientists affirm North Korea now boasts approximately 50 nuclear weapons.
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In a somewhat surprising revelation, a group of international scientists and researchers have been delving into North Korea's nuclear arsenal, reporting that the DPRK boasts around 50 nuclear weapons that resemble disco balls, olives, and peanuts. These creative nicknames are a nod to the peculiar shapes of North Korea's weapons, as ‘disco ball,’ ‘olive,’ and ‘peanut’ have been assigned to three distinct types of warheads.
Recently published research indicates that this number could potentially double, reaching up to 130 nuclear weapons by the end of the decade. However, notable nuclear powers often maintain secrecy about the details of their nuclear arsenals. With North Korea notoriously closed to outsiders, gathering information about its weapons program is a daunting task.
Enter the Federation of American Scientists (FAS), a U.S-based nonprofit dedicated to using science for world betterment, and its monumental Nuclear Notebook - an ongoing, exhaustive list of the world's nuclear weapons. While challenges persist in countries like France and the U.S. due to certain levels of transparency, North Korea remains a veritable enigma.
In the past, international officials have had access to North Korea, and this brief exposure provided the FAS with critical pieces of information that were later used to analyze the country's capabilities. Furthermore, the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un, has a penchant for showcasing nuclear capabilities in parades, which is a valuable resource for experts.
The FAS's latest research illuminates these various weapons, with several nicknames coined by Jeffrey Lewis, a State Department international security board member, and nuclear expert par excellence. The ‘disco ball’ represents a single-stage implosion nuke, first revealed in 2016. Essentially, it's a large, silver ball containing nuclear material surrounded by high explosives, with the implosion triggering a nuclear detonation similar to the one at the Trinity site.
Another weapon, the ‘peanut,’ debuted in 2017, and is believed to be a two-stage thermonuclear device, consisting of a series of nuclear explosions that escalate in power. However, it should be noted that experts with the FAS question whether the ‘peanut’ is a true thermonuclear weapon. It may simply be a device filled with tritium, which serves to boost the efficiency of a single-stage device.
Lastly, in 2023, North Korea showcased an ‘olive’-shaped single-stage nuke designed to fit within various delivery systems. According to the FAS, this display of different devices indicates North Korea's aspirations to develop more sophisticated and efficient warhead designs.
Based on available information, the FAS has attempted to estimate the amount of nuclear material North Korea may possess, and therefore the number of weapons it can build. According to their findings, North Korea could have up to 81 kilograms of plutonium and 1,800 kilograms of highly-enriched uranium, sufficient for the construction of approximately 90 nuclear weapons, though more conservative calculations suggest that DPRK could build up to 53 weapons.
Notably, the FAS predicts that North Korea could create around 6 nuclear weapons each year, eventually amassing a stockpile of 130 by the end of the decade. Buried within the report's scientific details is a more alarming issue, as it touches upon the potential use of these weapons.
While some countries that possess nuclear weapons maintain a "no-first-use policy," North Korea has apparently abandoned this practice. In 2022, North Korea's parliament passed a law allowing preemptive nuclear launches, a movement that was later codified in the nation's constitution in 2023, underscoring North Korea's intention to deter wars and secure regional and global peace through the rapid development of nuclear weapons to a higher level.
- The FAS's Nuclear Notebook, an exhaustive cataloging of the world's nuclear weapons, includes several nicknames for North Korea's nuclear weapons, such as 'disco ball', 'olive', and 'peanut', each representing a distinct type of warhead.
- According to the FAS's latest research, North Korea's nuclear arsenal may potentially double, reaching up to 130 nuclear weapons by the end of the decade, with an estimated 81 kilograms of plutonium and 1,800 kilograms of highly-enriched uranium.
- While some nations maintain a "no-first-use policy" for their nuclear weapons, North Korea has abandoned this practice, as evident by the passage of a law in 2022 allowing preemptive nuclear launches and its codification in the nation's constitution in 2023.
- Transparency remains a challenge in countries like North Korea, where gathering information about its nuclear weapons program is a daunting task, yet international officials have managed to obtain critical pieces of information, such as the peculiar shapes and types of North Korea's weapons, through brief exposure.