India's Solar Manufacturing Surges, US & EU Face Challenges
India's solar manufacturing sector has witnessed remarkable growth, particularly in module production, while the United States struggles with capacity mismatches. Meanwhile, the European Union faces its first solar growth decline in over a decade.
India's solar module production capacity has surged from 8 GW in 2017 to 68.4 GW today, with ambitious plans to reach 120 GW by 2030. This growth has been driven by the Production-Linked Incentive scheme and strategic import duties. However, India's solar manufacturing is heavily skewed towards modules, with solar cell capacity below 30 GW and no significant upstream wafer and polysilicon production. To address this, India aims to develop 40 GW of wafer capacity by March 2027. The Approved List of Models and Manufacturers (ALMM-II) mandate will require domestically manufactured cells for government projects starting June 2026, further boosting local production.
In contrast, the United States has 98 new solar facilities online and 51 under construction but faces a capacity mismatch between modules and cells. India, on the other hand, exported 5.8 GW of solar modules in 2024, with 97% going to the United States. However, rising US tariffs, set to hit 64% by August's end, pose a challenge to India's exports. The global solar landscape is dominated by China, which controls over 93% of global polysilicon production, 97% of wafer manufacturing, and 85% of solar cell production. The European Union, despite targets for 30 GW annual manufacturing capacity, is facing its first solar growth decline in over a decade for 2025.
India's solar manufacturing growth, fueled by government incentives and import duties, has significantly increased module production capacity. However, to become self-sufficient, India needs to expand its upstream wafer and polysilicon production. The United States and the European Union face their own challenges, with capacity mismatches and growth declines, respectively. The global solar industry's dominance by China underscores the need for other countries to develop their manufacturing capabilities.
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