Gulf States, Asia Set for Low-Carbon Ammonia Export Boom
Gulf states and select Asian nations are poised to become significant exporters of low-carbon ammonia in the coming years, backed by international investment funds and bilateral raw material partnerships. Meanwhile, Germany plans to upgrade its chemical industry infrastructure through such collaborations. However, 'green' ammonia needs further policy support to compete in most markets.
The global ammonia market is projected to triple by 2050, with low-carbon ammonia accounting for nearly all growth. This clean alternative is expected to reach 420 million tons by 2050, two-thirds of the total market. It will serve as a marine bunker fuel, industry feedstock, and power generation carrier.
Driving this growth are decarbonization policies. The Americas, Middle East, and Australia are expected to be major exporters, with Europe and East Asia as primary demand centers. Global trade is anticipated to increase nearly tenfold by 2050. 'Blue' ammonia, produced using natural gas and carbon capture, is expected to be more economically attractive than conventional production in some markets before 2030.
S&P Global Commodity Insights has launched a new Monthly Low-carbon Ammonia Report service to track these developments. As low-carbon ammonia gains traction, it will reshape global trade patterns and support the transition to a low-carbon economy.
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