Forecasters face setback as they grapple with a key predictive instrument amidst the onset of a potentially active hurricane period.
Small autonomous vessels from Cali-based company Saildrone have made a splash in the hurricane scene for the past four years. These hardy drone boats braved the heart of hurricanes to attain crucial information about wind speeds, wave heights, and more significantly, the transfer of heat and moisture between the ocean and the air.
This season, they won't be joining the forecasters' crew. Saildrone, it seems, "couldn't make the bid" for this year's NOAA contract, according to an unnamed NOAA employee. The delay in NOAA's solicitation for this year's contract left Saildrone unable to pre-deploy their fleet to multiple launching ports on the Atlantic and Gulf Coast in time for the hurricane season.
The outcome raises concerns about the administration's preparedness and response efforts for the hurricane season. This comes at a time when NOAA is grappling with staffing cuts through firings, early retirements, and more, leading to a plummet in morale.
While the saildrones are out of commission this season, meteorologists will rely on dropsondes – bundles of sensors that offer a brief glimpse into a storm's fierce winds at a specific location. However, the saildrones offered a unique advantage: Loitering for hours or even longer, they provided rare observations from the lowest levels of the atmosphere that could be fed directly into forecast models with the goal of boosting accuracy.
This season, NOAA will still field new technologies to gauge storms, including ultra-high altitude weather balloons. Yet, all these new tools are aerial assets, not the ocean-based saildrones. The absence of the saildrone's video feeds may not impact the data, but their ability to measure winds and sea surface temperatures for extended periods will surely be missed.
In the future, researchers aim to combine aerial and ocean-based observations for a more comprehensive understanding of hurricanes. Fingers crossed, this ambitious goal may become a reality by 2026.
Despite the challenges, Saildrone 1045 made history by intercepting the eyewall of Hurricane Sam on September 30, 2021[2][4]. The forecast is in: Hurricane season is going to be active. America's weather and disaster agencies may be in turmoil, but our tiny, autonomous heroes continue to churn out valuable data, one wave at a time.
- The delay in NOAA's solicitation for this year's contract has hindered the inclusion of environmental-science technology, such as Saildrone's autonomous vessels, in the hurricane forecasting process.
- While meteorologists will extensively use aerial assets like dropsondes and ultra-high altitude weather balloons this season, the absence of ocean-based saildrones, which provide unique lower-atmosphere observations and extended period measurements of winds and sea surface temperatures, may have an impact on the accuracy of forecast models.
- The advancement of technology in both aerial and ocean-based observations, aiming for a more comprehensive understanding of hurricanes, is planned for realization by 2026, nurturing hopes for improved Hurricane season predictions in the future.
