Dogecoin (DOGE) Cost Drops 30% from July Peaks, Now Challenging Significant $0.19 Foundation

Dogecoin (DOGE) Cost Drops 30% from July Peaks, Now Challenging Significant $0.19 Foundation

Dogecoin (DOGE) has experienced a 30% drop from its July high of $0.28, testing the support level at $0.19. However, the current setup may be more bullish due to the formation of a higher low at around $0.20 compared to the previous low at $0.14.

The ability of DOGE to hold the $0.19 support level will be critical in determining the next price direction. If DOGE fails to maintain this level, bears could push the price towards lower support levels at $0.17 and potentially $0.15, representing 12% to 24% further downside from current levels.

However, a historical pattern suggests that a similar drop in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) could trigger another substantial recovery in Dogecoin’s price. The last time Dogecoin's 4-hour RSI dropped below 30 was in June 2025, after which the price rallied more than 70% over the following weeks. This past pattern indicates that a similar RSI dip could lead to a potential 70% rally from the current level, pushing DOGE towards approximately $0.34.

Currently, Dogecoin is nearing this oversold RSI territory again, with the RSI approaching or expected to fall below 30 on the 4-hour timeframe. The recent price decline places DOGE around the $0.20 level, which is notably higher than the $0.14 price when the RSI last dipped below 30. This formation, known as a "higher low," can indicate potential for a "higher high" in upcoming price movements.

Additional context includes the current price also testing a key historical support near $0.22, a level that in past years preceded enormous bull runs (9,237% in 2017, 13,337% in 2021). Recent volume surges and a neutral RSI around 47 also hint at growing accumulation and a possible bullish shift if the price holds above critical support levels like $0.20–$0.22.

The long/short ratio on Binance shows long accounts outnumbering shorts 3:1, while OKX displays an even stronger 3.6 ratio. This suggests that traders are confident in a potential recovery, as they continue to hold their positions rather than exiting the market.

Despite the price drop, market sentiment data shows traders maintain a bullish outlook. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has flipped bearish, confirming the loss of short-term bullish momentum. However, the 20/200-day golden cross in late-July suggests the broader uptrend remains intact despite the recent decline.

In summary, the historical significance of Dogecoin's 4-hour RSI dropping below 30 is that it has reliably signaled deep oversold conditions followed by strong bullish reversals, potentially leading to 70%+ rallies. The current technical setup suggests a similar outcome may be possible if Dogecoin’s RSI crosses below this threshold again, combined with price support holding near historical critical levels around $0.20–$0.22. The next few days will be crucial for DOGE as the market determines whether the $0.19 support will hold, potentially setting the stage for a rebound towards $0.22, and potentially beyond.

[1] Source 1 [2] Source 2 [3] Source 3 [4] Source 4 [5] Source 5

1. The current bullish sentiment towards Dogecoin, as indicated by the long account-to-short ratio on Binance and OKX, suggests that investors are confident in the cryptocurrency's potential recovery.
2. If the Relative Strength Index (RSI) of Dogecoin falls below 30 on the 4-hour timeframe, as historically observed in 2025, it could signal an oversold condition and a possible 70% rally in its price, potentially pushing it towards $0.34.

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