Cotton Experiences a Decline on Thursday
In the cotton market, prices have shown some recovery after a series of declines, with the December 2025 contract trading around 66.6 cents per pound as of August 12, 2025[1][4]. This represents a 2% increase from the previous day and a slight gain over the past month. However, the prices remain in a multi-year bearish trend since mid-2022, fluctuating in a sideways range roughly between 64 and 71 cents in 2025, and still below highs from previous years[2].
The USDA Adjusted World Price (AWP) for cotton was recently reported at 54.39 cents per pound (down 13 points), reflecting recent market conditions including crop ratings and export data[3]. The USDA's latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report from July indicated a forecast increase in ending cotton inventories for the 2025/26 marketing year, with the upland cotton price projection unchanged at 62 cents per pound[2].
Regarding export sales, the USDA weekly report (week ending July 31, 2025) showed exports of approximately 182,300 running bales, bringing total accumulated exports to about 11,191,200 running bales, about 1% higher than the prior year[1]. Net sales for the 2025/26 marketing year were reported at 109,300 running bales, indicating modest but stable export demand[1].
Crop and weather conditions are generally favourable in key U.S. cotton regions, supporting expectations for a strong harvest, though some dryness persists in West Texas[1][5]. Internationally, good monsoon conditions in India might contribute to ample production there, which also affects global cotton supply dynamics[5].
In summary, the cotton market is currently showing signs of recovery but remains in a bearish trend. The USDA's forecast suggests an increase in ending inventories and a steady price projection, indicating a supply sufficient to meet demand. Export sales have been relatively weak but improving, with traders and exporters closely watching weather, tariffs, and demand signals.
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References:
[1] USDA Weekly Export Sales Report, July 31, 2025. [2] USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), July 2025. [3] USDA Adjusted World Price (AWP) Report, August 6, 2025. [4] Cotton futures data, August 12, 2025. [5] Cotton Outlook, August 5, 2025.
In the realms of finance and investing, technology plays a significant role in tracking and analyzing market data such as cotton prices and export sales. Despite the recent 2% increase in the December 2025 cotton contract to 66.6 cents per pound, the market still follows a multi-year bearish trend, with prices fluctuating due to factors like crop ratings, export data, weather conditions, and international production.
