Advanced Micro Devices experienced a significant surge in July, recording a substantial increase of approximately 24%.
In the ever-evolving world of technology, AMD finds itself at a crossroads, as it navigates the complex landscape of selling its AI chips to China. The Commerce Department has recently announced its intention to approve shipments of AMD's MI308 AI chip to China, a move that could potentially boost the company's revenues. However, this decision comes amidst a backdrop of regulatory uncertainty and geopolitical tensions.
The Trump administration's AI Action Plan, unveiled in 2025, aimed to streamline permitting, remove bureaucratic barriers, and promote the export of American AI tech. The plan sought to make the U.S. an "AI export powerhouse" and reduce state-level regulatory constraints. Yet, the reality remains uncertain, with export controls and license processing for advanced computing chips like those from AMD remaining unclear. Procedures and enforcement questions remain about export licenses for AI chips to China, with concerns over timing, monitoring capabilities, and interagency coordination still lingering as of mid-2025.
The volatile trade policies of the Trump administration, including tariffs and export restrictions, have also contributed to instability in supply chains for AI chip components and exports. This complexity complicates market access and may potentially increase prices for AMD chips in China.
Moreover, the plan emphasized removing "ideological agendas" from AI models and focused on competing with China strategically. This includes efforts to ensure American AI exports do not align with Chinese Communist Party directives, which may lead to tightened scrutiny on chip exports to China, affecting sales.
Despite these challenges, AMD's stock has had a remarkable run, more than doubling since the April lows and trading at 44 times this year's earnings estimates. The company is set to report earnings after the close today, and the report will likely include details about the impact of increased demand for AMD's Instinct AI accelerator.
In a positive development, AMD's toned-down AI GPUs were approved for sale into China, and the company has raised the price of its Instinct MI350 AI accelerator from $15,000 to $25,000, representing a 67% increase. This price increase suggests AMD is more confident about Instinct's competitiveness with Nvidia's Blackwell.
The market impact of these developments remains to be seen. While deregulation aims to accelerate U.S. AI sector growth and export capability, the stringent export controls and political tensions may hinder AMD’s ability to freely sell AI chips in China, potentially limiting sales volumes or increasing chip prices due to regulatory delays and licensing uncertainty.
As AMD prepares to report its earnings, the company is likely to benefit as it seeks to become a trusted second source behind Nvidia in AI data centers. The big cloud hyperscalers have increased their outlooks for capital expenditures going to AI data centers, and AMD is well-positioned to capitalise on this trend, provided it can navigate the complex regulatory and trade environment.
[1] White House, Office of Science and Technology Policy. (2025). The AI Action Plan. Retrieved from https://www.whitehouse.gov/ai-action-plan/ [2] U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission. (2025). Annual Report to Congress: National Security Implications of China’s Artificial Intelligence Strategy. Retrieved from https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/2025-07/2025_Annual_Report_to_Congress.pdf [3] National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence. (2020). National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence Final Report. Retrieved from https://www.nscai.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/NSCAI-Final-Report-12-09-20.pdf [4] U.S. Department of Commerce. (2020). Export Control Reform: Establishment of the Emerging and Foundational Technologies (EFT) Control List. Retrieved from https://www.commerce.gov/news/press-releases/2020/08/department-commerce-announces-export-control-reform-establishment-emerging
- As AMD prepares to navigate the complex regulatory landscape to sell AI chips to China, the company's focus on investing in technology and finance may be crucial in overcoming regulatory uncertainty and geopolitical tensions.
- The Finance Department's decision to approve shipments of AMD's MI308 AI chip to China could potentially boost the company's revenues, underscoring the importance of money management and strategic investing in the tech industry.
- Despite AMD's success in the stock market and price hikes for its Instinct MI350 AI accelerator, potential restrictions on AI chip exports to China due to regulatory controls and political tensions could limit sales volumes or increase chip prices, making finance and investing in alternative markets essential.
